St. Petersburg, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

030
FXUS62 KTBW 060100
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
800 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Aviation concerns with areas of fog and low ceilings tonight
  into early Saturday morning.

- Rain chances increase through the weekend and into early next
  week.

- Cooler and drier conditions return next week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Increasing low level moisture pooling continues ahead of the weak
cold frontal boundary in N FL this evening producing a quickly
developing and thickening low level cloud deck and a few light
sprinkles that will settle over the region tonight with areas of
dense fog likely towards morning as well. Visibilities can become
reduced quickly over short distances, motorists or boaters should
use caution in low visibility conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Expanding area of MVFR cigs moving from the E Gulf ashore from the
Nature Coast through the Tampa Bay area in light SW flow. Cigs and
vsbys to lower overnight with widespread IFR to LIFR conditions
likely and will continue to use IFR/LIFR TEMPO groups with CIGs
down to 300 feet and VSBY restrictions down to 1/2 mile in fog
between 05-15Z. Conditions likely to improve after 15-17Z on
Saturday morning with VFR through the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Broad upper ridging and surface high pressure remains southeast of
Florida. This pattern will keep southeast through southwest winds
over the area allowing for a warm and humid air mass to remain over
Florida for the next couple of days. Partly cloudy skies and above
average temperatures expected for most of the area today and
tonight. A little farther north, an extensive frontal boundary
extends from the Carolinas, west-southwestward through the southeast
U.S. and then into the northwestern Gulf. A spotty shower or two may
be possible later this evening into early Saturday morning along the
northeast Gulf and Nature Coast. The other weather concern will be
the possibility of some areas of dense fog during the early morning
hours on Saturday morning.

By Saturday morning, the upper ridge and surface high pressure
center has shifted further southeastward. This will allow for the
frontal boundary to dip a little farther southward bringing
increasing rain chances over the northeastern gulf waters, Nature
Coast and even into central Florida. Southwest Florida should stay
mostly rain-free on Saturday. Above average temps continue on
Saturday and Saturday night.

On Sunday, the ridge to the southeast further weakens, which will
allow for the frontal boundary to shift further south and will
eventually push through the Florida peninsula late Sunday evening
into early Monday morning. Sunday will be the wettest day during the
forecast period with high rain and storm chances (40-80 percent)
expected through the day.

The front will finally push south and east of Florida by early
Monday afternoon. Strong high pressure builds in behind this front
and will bring clearing conditions and slightly cooler weather for
most of next week. Daytime highs for Monday through Friday next week
will only reach the mid 60`s to mid 70`s each day with overnight
lows dipping into the 40`s and 50`s each night next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Interaction between high pressure southeast of Florida and a frontal
boundary to the north will keep a predominant south-southwest wind
flow around 10-15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through Saturday
evening. A stray shower may be possible later this evening over the
northeastern Gulf. There is also a possibility of some early morning
fog over the eastern gulf waters early Saturday morning. By Saturday
afternoon and continuing into Sunday, rain and storm chances
increase as the frontal boundary slowly shifts southward. This will
bring scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms over the
eastern Gulf waters. By early Monday afternoon, the front pushes
southeast of Florida and high pressure builds in from the northwest.
This will clear out the rain chances, but will bring some hazardous
boating conditions with breezy north-northeast winds around 15-20
knots and seas up to 5 feet for the first half of next week.
Pleasant boating conditions expected mid to late next week with
winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

High pressure sits southeast of Florida while a frontal boundary
remains north of the area. This will keep Florida in a warm and
humid air mass with humidity values remaining above critical levels.
The frontal boundary shifts further south on Saturday and Sunday
with increasing rain and storm chances expected. Some areas of dense
fog will also be possible during the early morning hours on Saturday
morning. High pressure builds back in by Monday afternoon with
pleasant weather expected for most of next week with no other fire
weather concerns expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  80  67  79 /  20  40  50  50
FMY  67  82  68  82 /   0   0  10  20
GIF  66  83  64  82 /  10  40  40  50
SRQ  68  80  66  80 /  10  20  40  40
BKV  62  79  59  78 /  30  50  60  70
SPG  70  78  68  78 /  20  40  50  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana